Beware of Men Bearing Confident Predictions
“At its start, in 1966, Medicare cost $3 billion. The House Ways and Means Committee, along with President Johnson, estimated that Medicare would cost an inflation-adjusted $12 billion by 1990. In 1990, Medicare topped $107 billion. That’s nine times Congress’ prediction. Today’s Medicare tab comes to $420 billion with no signs of leveling off.”
…and the beat goes on. People never seem to tire of buying into long term projections. And projections never tire of disappointing.
